How do you identify "under-the-radar" NBA players? All you really need to do is look at your fantasy league.
I don't usually write about fantasy basketball, though often I am accused of it when my analysis leads me into unpopular territory. However, I do like to keep track of what's going on in the fantasy genre. For one, because so much of my work is built upon quantitative analysis, it's only natural that there be a certain portion of my readership mining articles for items that might give them a leg up in their leagues. Also, I like to watch ownership trends: How many of you collectively own a player across all leagues? Which players are you adding and dropping? It's as good a method as any to tell me what the consensus opinion is of a player at any given time.
With the 2014-15 season finally underway, most of you have had your fantasy drafts, so I decided to check for players who seem to be commonly overlooked. After dumping ownership percentages from ESPN's fantasy pages into my database, I commenced a bit of creative filtering. I was looking for players owned in fewer than 90 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues who met the following criteria:
1. Come into the season with a breakout percentage 5 percent or greater in the SCHOENE projection system. The metric looks at all the past players most comparable to that player, and measures which percentage of them have improved their bottom-line performance by at least 20 percent.
2. Enter the season with a starting role.
3. Had a preseason individual winning percentage at least 100 points better than their SCHOENE projection. Preseason performance would have only a small impact on a player's forecast if incorporated into the system. Still, I figure if you're going to gamble on a player, you're looking at preseason breakouts that might be real, and the uptick in performance combined with the breakout percentage should indicate a possible sleeper.
After all that filtering, I found just four players who met the criteria. There were others who also look like good sleeper candidates, but they don't begin the season likely to get major minutes. These players I have listed at the end, so if an injury or trade opens a key spot on the depth charts, you'll be ready to pounce.
If you don't play fantasy basketball, that's fine, too. These are players who might not be on your mind right now, but could end up in the spotlight in a couple of months. Here's a look at four potential under-the-radar stars heading into the 2014-15 season.