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All we know is that we don't know

PREGAME SPEECH

From "A Few Good Men" ...

Kaffee: "Lt. Kendrick ... can I call you John?"

Kendrick: "No, you may not."

Sometimes being direct is the best way to go -- not so much for Kendrick (tsk, tsk -- part of that messy Santiago cover-up), but it works in college football.

So let's get right to it ...

What we thought we knew:

Florida State, Oregon, Alabama and Oklahoma are the four best teams in the country.

What we know now:

They might be. Sort of. Maybe.

Then again, after watching a true freshman quarterback befuddle FSU's defense at times ... and Oregon looking mortal because of offensive-line issues ... and Bama bumbling, fumbling away the ball ... and OU giving up 33 points, 513 total yards (376 passing) against the couch burners -- well, maybe it's just best to wish the College Football Playoff selection committee godspeed when it comes time to pick the final four.

No way can you say there are four chisel-it-in-stone top-four teams. There aren't even two.

Yes, the Seminoles were playing without their sometimes clueless starting quarterback, Jameis Winston. (Uh, Jameis, a suspension means you don't get to gear up for the game, bud.) But they were playing at home, and playing against self-destructive Clemson, which no longer has any feet left to shoot.

Clemson fans, please close your eyes before you read this: A missed touchdown pass ... missed field goals ... first-and-goal from the 1 -- and you get nothing ... shotgun snaps that Yao Ming couldn't snag while standing atop a ladder ... a fumble at FSU's 14-yard line with 96 seconds left in regulation ... a failed fourth-and-1 run out of the shotgun formation in overtime.

Meanwhile, Oregon's duct-taped O-line gave up seven sacks and its defense gave up 499 yards and 31 points to a Washington State team whose only win is against Portland State.

Bama had four turnovers and 11 penalties against Florida (though, to be fair, it also had 645 yards of offense and went 12-of-16 on third-down conversions).

And OU needed a 100-yard kickoff return just to be tied with West Virginia at halftime.

Of course, things will shake out. They always do. But for now, you can make an argument for Texas A&M, Auburn, Baylor and possibly Notre Dame or BYU as future top-four candidates. And Ole Miss, Mississippi State and UCLA could worm their way into the discussion, too.

What we thought we knew:

Florida State's Winston, Oregon's Marcus Mariota, UCLA's Brett Hundley and Georgia's Todd Gurley will be in New York for December's Heisman Trophy ceremony.

What we know now:

You can stand on a table and shout it: Winston isn't going to challenge for a second consecutive Heisman unless he can rehabilitate his image -- stat -- and FSU can finish the regular season undefeated. And even then he might have already alienated too many Heisman voters.

At the moment, Winston is out (and until we know the actual condition of his injured elbow, so is Hundley) and BYU's Taysom Hill, A&M's Kenny Hill and Bama's Amari Cooper are in along with Mariota and Gurley.

What we thought we knew:

Virginia Tech is back!

What we know now:

No, it isn't!

The Hokies picked up the big win at Ohio State on Sept. 6 and then went on a two-game sabbatical at home against East Carolina and Georgia Tech. They lost in the last 16 seconds to the Pirates and lost to the Yellow Jackets with double zeroes on the clock.

What we thought we knew:

USC is back!

What we know now:

It's hard to win when the Trojan Marching Band has more flutists than the actual football team has recruited scholarship players on the travel squad.

What we thought we knew:

Notre Dame is a year away.

What we know now:

Actually, that year just might be 2014.

What we thought we knew:

The SEC East can hang with the SEC West this season.

What we know now:

The SEC West has five unbeaten teams (Bama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Auburn) and two other teams you wouldn't want to see on your schedule anytime soon (Arkansas and LSU). The SEC East has no unbeaten teams, and Mizzou just lost to Indiana, Florida got crushed at Bama and South Carolina had to sweat out a game against Vandy.

What we thought we knew:

Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon is a washout.

What we know now:

Gordon averaged 19.5 yards per carry in Saturday's win against Bowling Green. He rushed for 253 yards and scored five times.

Still, one of these days can somebody explain to me how he gained just 38 yards against Western Illinois?

What we thought we knew:

That it's dicey stuff to make preseason predictions.

What we know now:

That what we know now will be different than what we know a month from now.

FIRST QUARTER

In: East Carolina, Indiana, Deshaun Watson, Old Dominion, sign stealing, Lane Kiffin -- offensive genius, Dak Prescott, Hail Mary, Arkansas (otherwise known as Wisconsin-South), Duke Williams, neutral-field games (Notre Dame vs. Syracuse at East Rutherford, New Jersey, and Texas A&M vs. Arkansas at Jerry World), Heat Meter on Will Muschamp's job status, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald's tough-love tactics, Utah Heisman poses, Faux Pelini, Real Pelini, down time (Baylor, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, UCLA, Arizona State, USC, Stanford, Ohio State and Oklahoma State had off weeks), blowouts (Texas A&M over SMU, Michigan State over Eastern Michigan, Georgia over Troy, Wisconsin over Bowling Green, Penn State over UMass), Oklahoma's Samaje Perine, Steve Spurrier -- kickoff coverage coach (he's taking over those duties after Vandy returned two kickoffs for touchdowns against the Gamecocks).

Out: Mississippi State 14-game losing streak vs. LSU, Winston suspension, Cal coaching seminar on fourth-quarter defense, injury info on UCLA's Hundley, Northern Illinois' 17-game win streak in road games, Minnesota's passing "attack" (7 yards in win against San Jose State), picking on Big Ten (for at least this week; the conference was 12-1 Saturday, with wins against Mizzou, Pitt, Miami and Navy), Florida's defense, Arizona State's Taylor Kelly, Oklahoma's Keith Ford.

SECOND QUARTER

An interesting thing happened Saturday morning just moments after Samantha Ponder of "College GameDay" delivered a heartfelt, reasoned criticism of Winston's recent behavior: the pro-FSU (presumably pro-Jameis) crowd outside Doak Campbell Stadium, hundreds strong, began to applaud.

In essence, Ponder said the world is full of excuses, and that Winston has used his lifetime allotment. She had no personal agenda, no anti-Jameis mandate. But her words cut to the core of the Winston debate: At what point does immaturity no longer act as a shield? And how many apologies are you allowed before your words are permanently diluted by your actions?

The topic has been discussed ad nauseum. But it deserves discussion because this isn't just any college football program, or just any college quarterback. And how curious that the official FSU statement announcing the Roger Goodell-like suspension of Winston (a half-game suspension -- wait, no, a one-game suspension) featured the names of the school's interim president and its athletic director, but not of its head coach.

Winston isn't some wide-eyed true freshman who arrived on campus in July for his first-ever fall camp. This is his third year at Florida State. He's a two-year starter ... a Heisman winner ... a supposed leader for the most talented team in the country.

And yet he still keeps making knucklehead choices, followed by "I apologize for (fill-in-the-blank)" statements.

FSU coach Jimbo Fisher insists that Winston is a good kid. And true enough, Winston can be charismatic, engaging, thoughtful and, of course, a revelation on the football field. But his better angels often are overpowered by decisions that defy explanation. Or to Ponder's point: that defy the fallback position of, "He's just a kid."

During Saturday's "GameDay" show outside the confines of Doak Campbell Stadium, I saw a young girl perched on top of the shoulders of a friend. She held up a hand-drawn sign that read, "Jameis, Grow Up."

Yeah, that about covers it.

There are those Seminoles fans -- and undoubtedly, those inside the FSU football program -- who will forever think Winston was over-punished, that his verbal indiscretion, however vulgar or inappropriate, didn't merit a one-game suspension. If it were up to them, Winston would have been suspended for halftime.

But the punishment isn't the issue. Winston is the issue. Is he a serial apologizer, or a person capable of change? Because this version of Winston is beginning to wear thin, even on the FSU locals.

"Famous" or "Infamous" Jameis? The choice is his.

HALFTIME

And the Quote of the Week Award goes to ... Spurrier, who was so thrilled with South Carolina's 48-34 victory over Vanderbilt that he said: "The way we play is embarrassing. ... And I'm the head coach of this embarrassing group of guys. ... It's embarrassing, but we are who we are. We're not a very good team, but we're 3-1 somehow. And we got all the voters fooled thinking we're pretty good, I guess, because we beat Georgia."

I would pay cash money to listen to Spurrier jabber away about nearly any topic, but especially when he is disgusted with his own team.

By the way, Spurrier's "embarrassing" team faces Missouri this week. If Spurrier feels that way about his Gamecocks after a win, just think how Gary Pinkel feels about his Tigers after a home loss to Indiana.

THIRD QUARTER

To Florida fans who somehow feel betrayed that Urban Meyer left Gainesville in 2010, or believe in conspiracy theories (see, what Meyer did was manufacture a scenario in which he could resign and later resurface at Ohio State), then you might want to watch the upcoming HBO interview with the Buckeyes' head coach.

Meyer has spoken about his personal issues in the past (so out of whack were his priorities, that before he could take the Ohio State job in 2012, he had to sign a contract with his own family promising to essentially not drive himself into the ground). I've done several interviews with Meyer about those days and it was clear that he was a husband and father in distress at the time.

But his description of the circa 2009 Urban Meyer to HBO is starker, darker and scarier than anybody imagined.

He feared he was dying. "Mentally, I was broke," he said.

He was so stressed out that he took Ambiens with beer chasers "just to get some sleep." His weight dropped from 217 pounds to 180.

Meyer was a wreck, which explains why he ultimately resigned at Florida following the 2010 season. His critics and skeptics have linked his departure partly to a roster talent void.

Whatever. Coaching at the highest levels of college football is a bizarre, unnatural and sometimes debilitating profession. In some cases, the money to be made is mind-boggling. But so, too, are the personal costs.

Meyer (and other coaches who certainly can relate to his personal struggles) isn't asking for anybody's sympathy. That's not his style. But it is a somewhat courageous admission, especially for someone who prides himself in self-control and discipline.

I remain convinced that Meyer is still consumed by the desire to win football games. But in the last few years, he has added a much-needed component to his life: perspective.

FOURTH QUARTER

And the Heisman goes to ... Oregon's Mariota.

Mariota is Colin Kaepernick without the muscle flexing.

Also in attendance for the presentation ceremony: Georgia's Gurley, Texas A&M's Hill, Notre Dame's Everett Golson, Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah, Baylor's Bryce Petty, Arizona State's D.J. Foster, Alabama's Cooper and BYU's Hill (I love the quote, courtesy of the Salt Lake Tribune, in which Virginia linebacker Max Valles seeks out Hill after the Cougars' win against UVA and says, "[You're] the best athlete I have ever played against, college or high school.")

In a parallel universe where all the other Heisman candidates decide to quit football to join a Riverdance traveling ensemble: East Carolina quarterback Shane Carden.

POSTGAME SPEECH

Top 10

1. Oklahoma

The Mountaineers exposed some soft spots in OU's defense -- and still lost by a dozen points. OU is off until the Oct. 4 game at TCU.

2. Alabama

Isn't it fun to watch Kiffin and Nick Saban, separated by only a few feet, talking to each other on the headsets? I'm still not sold on Bama's defense, but Kiffin has made a difference in the Tide's offense and in the development of quarterback Blake Sims. Bama is also off until Oct. 4 (at Ole Miss).

3. Florida State

Winston returns to practice Monday as the starter and maybe football life returns to semi-normal at FSU. The Seminoles travel to North Carolina State. The Wolfpack are 4-0, but haven't beaten anybody.

4. Oregon

From one high-scoring team (Washington State) to another high-scoring team (undefeated Arizona, fresh off its 49-45 win against Cal, where the Wildcats scored 36 fourth-quarter points). Defense is optional for the Oct. 2 matchup.

5. Texas A&M

Now that the Aggies are done picking on poor SMU, they move up to the cruiserweight division: Arkansas.

6. Auburn

The Tigers were fortunate to get out of K-State with a win. Still, all nonconference wins on the road, especially against a Bill Snyder-coached team, are good wins.

7. Notre Dame

Syracuse shouldn't be much of a problem this week. The Irish will have had two weeks to prepare for the trip.

8. Baylor

The Bears don't need two weeks to prepare for a trip to Iowa State, but they'll get it anyway.

9. Ole Miss

The rested Rebels face Memphis at home Saturday. Memphis gave UCLA a game earlier in the season.

10. BYU

Are you catching Cougars fever yet? BYU doesn't play again until Oct. 3 against Utah State.

Waiting list: Michigan State, UCLA, South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi State.

POSTGAME LOBBYING

Who's In:

No. 1 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Oregon -- Truth is, you could seed these four teams any way you want and not be wrong. But until further notice, the Sooners get the top seed.

No. 2 Bama vs. No. 3 FSU -- Jimbo knows Nick, and Nick knows Jimbo.