This is not my story.
And even better, it's been told before, most recently on "Fantasy Football Now," the show we do every Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET on both ESPN.com and ESPN2. But we all know I'm going to disappoint you at some point in the column, so why not get it out of the way right at the top?
But I love this story, so I'm going to tell it again. And it starts like this …
So my fellow FF Now (that's what the cool kids call it) analyst Tim Hasselbeck is in a fantasy football league this year with, among other folks, his brother, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. It should shock no one that Matt went QB-heavy with his team, drafting not only himself but also his former real-life Packers teammate, Brett Favre.
Like many people I meet, it's Matt's first-year playing fantasy. But he showed the objectivity of a wily veteran when, in Week 5, he decided to bench himself for the ol' gunslinger. It made sense. Favre was coming off a red-hot dismantling of Green Bay on "Monday Night Football," had seven scores in his past three games and was facing the Rams, among the worst pass defenses in the league.
I'll save you the trouble of looking it up. Brett threw for 232 yards, only one score (plus a pick) and finished with 11 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring. Sixteen different quarterbacks finished with more points than Brett that week, including such names as Josh Johnson, Chad Henne and Daunte Culpepper (against the Steelers!).
And sitting on Matt Hasselbeck's bench was, well, Matt Hasselbeck, who threw for four scores against the Jaguars and finished with 27 fantasy points. More than Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or any other quarterback that week.
Think about that. He knew the game plan, he had as much control over an NFL game as any fantasy player could ever have, he wound up as the highest-scoring player at his position in the league …
… AND HE WAS SITTING ON HIS OWN BENCH.
And I'm gonna shock you even more. I think Matt made the right call.
In my ranks that week, I had Brett at 10 and Hasselbeck at 13. I liked the matchup for Matt, of course, but how do you sit a red-hot Brett Favre against the Rams? Remember, Hasselbeck hadn't played for the two games leading up to Week 5 because of the back injury. How healthy was he? Would he last the game? Would his rhythm be off any?
Coming into that week, the Rams had given up 27 fantasy points to Aaron Rodgers in their previous home game. Matt knew the Rams' pass defense (or lack thereof) very well; he had torched them for three scores in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were riding a two-game win streak, including a win two weeks earlier against a pretty good Houston Texans team and, while they had not played great pass defense in either game, it stood to reason the Jags would be a tougher test for Matt than the Rams for Brett.
Obviously, it didn't work out for Matt, but that's the nature of the game. All any of us can do, in any week, is make the best possible decisions, taking every factor into account and then letting the game unfold. Sometimes, it doesn't play out the way you expect.
It's like when you're sitting at a blackjack table. Some drunk girl is sitting on an 18 and the dealer is showing 10. So the drunk girl (or stupid tool of a dude, seen it both ways) says "Hit me." The table rolls their eyes in disgust … and then the dealer throws down a three. The drunk girl is all proud. "I knew it! I had a feeling!"
And I'm like … No! That was dumb! Just because it worked out doesn't mean it was a good decision, you idiot. It was a terrible decision and you happened to get lucky. Had you stayed on 18 and the dealer revealed his 20, you would have lost. But it would have been the right move.
Because it's not about that one hand. It's about the whole time you're at the table. And not just that one night but every time you play. Because odds are, three out of four times you bust when you pull a card when you are showing 18. And over the long haul -- a night of playing cards or a season of playing fantasy football -- playing the odds will work in your favor many more times than not.
If a batter gets a hit three times out of 10, he's a star. If an NFL GM gets two or three picks right a year, it's a great draft class. As ESPN Stats & Information researcher Jeremy Lundblad notes, Tiger Woods, arguably the most dominant athlete ever, has played in 253 PGA Tour events and has won 71 of them. That is 28.1 percent of the events that he has entered.
I rank 250 players every week and I'll be the first to admit I don't get them all right. And even if I could look into the future, what good would that do you? Like, say I had ranked Ryan Moats last week as my No. 1 running back. And Mark Sanchez as my No. 3 QB. Or Larry Fitzgerald, during a week with six teams on a bye, outside my top 20? You'd have thought I was bonkers. And you'd have been right.
Because even though all three things were true, the odds of them happening were not great. In the case of Moats, they were astronomical.
I'm gonna repeat this: Matt Hasselbeck knew the game plan, he had as much control over an NFL game as any fantasy player could ever have, he wound up as the highest-scoring player at his position in the league … and he was sitting on his own bench.
If Matt couldn't nail it, what the hell chance do any of us have? And the answer is that it's a very tough challenge. Which is all the more reason you play the odds, you put yourself in the best chance to win and you hope for the best.
That's good advice for life, too. Which brings us to this week's players that I think have better or worse odds of doing what they normally do …

Week 9 players I love
Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: I know, he's been brutal. But the last time he was on the road, he scored twice. The Falcons are coming off a short week and New Orleans ran all over them. They are 23rd against the run, Portis is off the injury report for the first time since, like, 1968, and I'm expecting a heavy dose of Clinton on the road.

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins: The Falcons really miss Brian Williams. Not the NBC newsman. He's still a trusted source of information every single night. I mean their cornerback, who was a trusted source of stopping passes. Now? Not so much.
Fred Davis, TE, Redskins: Falcons giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and Davis has now had a bye week to get even more integrated into the offense.
Devin Hester, WR, Bears: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie loves to gamble (I bet he hits on 18), which means a big-play guy like Hester can burn him the way Steve Smith did last week
Tim Hightower, RB, Cardinals: Not counting the Browns game, the Bears have given up at least 19 fantasy points to opposing running backs in three of the past four. With Boldin banged up, I wouldn't be surprised to see Beanie Wells have a nice...