NFL Vegas Ranks | Underdog value | NFL PickCenter | Eliminator picks
It's hard to know what to make of the New Orleans Saints. It's often said that the first sign of a bad team is inconsistency. The teams that are inconsistent are indeed the biggest heartbreakers, because it's not simply a matter of personnel or scheme -- it's something far more nebulous and far more difficult to correct.
Perhaps the most notable trait of the Saints under Sean Payton is the remarkable split between home and away performance. Dome teams will always feel some level of drop-off on the road, but it's particularly hard on the Saints: Over the past 16 games, they're 8-0 at home and 1-7 away from the Superdome.
Despite the losses, New Orleans still has plenty to hang its hat on. They are power-ranked No. 3 in total offense when adjusting for strength of opponents, although somewhat shockingly it's based on the strength of their running game (No. 2) more than the passing game (No. 10). A date at home with the Buccaneers and Tampa Bay's league-worst rush defense can't come at a better time for the Saints and for your Eliminator pool. Ridiculous upset in Pittsburgh aside, this matchup could right the Saints' ship heading into the meat of their divisional schedule.
Each week, we at numberFire.com will be here with our projective modeling to help you survive and advance in your Eliminator pool. Our job is to provide the best information possible to empower smarter decision-making.
We'll provide three different versions of picks for you to choose from.
Survival Guide
Need help making your Eliminator selections? Check out Insider's latest tool right here.
Sign up for ESPN's Eliminator Challenge.
First, we will provide the win-maximizing pick of the week. This is based on the probability of a team winning combined with the percentage of the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge population selecting each game. To do this, we generate every possible combination of outcomes each week (65,000-plus) so you can maximize your potential gains. In addition, we will look forward to future matchups to let you know which teams to keep in reserve, and highlight the team most likely to win by our projections.
Keep in mind that we are dealing in probability and that upsets will happen.
To help you visualize, below is our Eliminator Pool threat matrix, which shows you how all 32 teams project each week based on our model. It will be updated for this column each Tuesday as results come in over the course of the season.
Here's a helpful guide to navigate the information:
Green: Our equity-maximizing pick of the week.
Red: Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player.
Brown: Max method: This finds the best matchup of the season and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season.